The US-Saudi oil war:
In end of 2014, following a decrease in prices and the refusal of the USA to cut back production, KSA initiated an all out war against America’s booming shale oil industry.
By increasing output, Saudi Arabia drove the price from $105/b all the way down to 30$/b in an effort to crush the competition (shale oil breaks even at 52$ as opposed to $22 crude oil)
Although this caused a dozen of American firms to file bankruptcy and up to 100000 lay offs , the industry survived but the prices remained low.
OPEC countries were hit hardest by the all prices, oil revenue dwindled causing financial and in some cases political turmoil. This constitute a massive failure that could lead to the end of OPEC.
Talks with non-OPEC members:
Following the agreed production cut agreed in Vienna, in the first instance on November 30, 2016.
The results:
1) Successful, because the price of oil has been stable in the first quarter of this year till now. With a stable market increased prices are obtained.
2) Unsuccessful, for OPEP because prices enabled The USA to invest on its own reserves and increase market quota.
It’s important to stress that it’s the first cut production agreed after 2008, and that several countries non-OPEC have also participated, Russia for example.
Given the current economic situation, compromise with non-opec countries becomes inevitable.
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